Are LEGO Sets a Good Investment in 2026?
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Are LEGO sets a good investment in 2026? We compared the latest market value of 454 sets that retired from 2022 through 2025 with their US list price. The median set is worth about 1.23 times list new, most hold their value, few double, and selling fees decide whether a sale is a profit.
Are LEGO sets a good investment in 2026? Sometimes, but not reliably. We compared the latest market value of 454 LEGO sets that retired from 2022 through 2025 with their US list price. The median set is worth 1.23 times its list price new and sealed. Most hold their value, a minority grow strongly, very few double, and after selling fees and shipping only about half would turn a profit for someone who paid full price. LEGO is a good collectible that tends to keep its value; it is a poor substitute for a savings plan.
What our market data shows
How we measured it: we took every set in our catalog with an exit date between January 1, 2022 and December 31, 2025, a US list price, and a current market value for a new, sealed copy. That gives 454 sets after removing two whose values looked like catalog mismatches. Each value is the latest price check in our market data, taken between November 28, 2025 and October 5, 2026. The figure we compare is simple: market value divided by US list price.
| Across 454 retired sets | Result |
|---|---|
| Median value as a multiple of list price | 1.23 times |
| Worth more than list | 69% |
| Worth exactly list | 20% |
| Worth less than list | 11% |
| Worth 1.5 times list or more | 30% |
| Worth twice list or more | 9% |
Two limits matter. This is a snapshot, not a tracked return: it compares each set's latest value with its list price and does not follow the same sets over time, so it says nothing about a yearly rate. And a market value is an estimate of what a new, sealed copy sells for, before the seller pays anything. Restricting the sample to the 220 sets whose last check fell in 2026 gives a median of 1.35 times list, so the picture is not an artefact of older checks.
Time since retirement matters most
| Retired in | Sets | Median multiple of list | At 1.5 times list or more | Still valued exactly at list |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 101 | 1.45 | 48% | 7% |
| 2023 | 125 | 1.25 | 34% | 10% |
| 2024 | 126 | 1.27 | 30% | 8% |
| 2025 | 102 | 1.00 | 10% | 59% |
For a set that has only just left shelves it is too early to tell: 59% of 2025 retirees are still valued at exactly their list price in our data. The sets that retired in 2022 show the clearest premium, with almost half at 1.5 times list or more. If you buy to sell, expect to wait years rather than months, and expect most of the gain to come from a minority of sets.
Which themes held their value
Themes with at least 15 retired sets in the sample, by median multiple of US list price:
| Theme | Sets | Median multiple | At 1.5 times list or more |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collectible Minifigures | 22 | 1.80 | 68% |
| Duplo | 18 | 1.52 | 50% |
| Ninjago | 31 | 1.50 | 52% |
| Super Mario | 18 | 1.44 | 39% |
| City | 54 | 1.25 | 26% |
| Star Wars | 23 | 1.25 | 22% |
| Creator | 22 | 1.24 | 41% |
| Disney | 16 | 1.21 | 31% |
| Seasonal | 23 | 1.14 | 35% |
| Technic | 17 | 1.13 | 18% |
| Ideas | 16 | 1.13 | 38% |
| Marvel | 30 | 1.09 | 20% |
| Friends | 39 | 1.03 | 10% |
If you expected Star Wars at the top, the order is a surprise. Star Wars and City hold their value well, but the strongest multiples in this sample come from Collectible Minifigures packets and from Duplo, Ninjago and Super Mario, themes aimed at younger builders. With 16 to 54 sets per theme, treat this as a tendency, not a ranking you can bank on.
Cheap sets multiply, big sets earn dollars
| US list price | Sets | Median multiple | At 1.5 times list or more |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $30 | 186 | 1.47 | 48% |
| $30 to $59.99 | 101 | 1.04 | 18% |
| $60 to $99.99 | 76 | 1.07 | 13% |
| $100 to $199.99 | 60 | 1.15 | 25% |
| $200 and up | 31 | 1.14 | 19% |
The under-$30 band looks like the best investment until you notice its median list price is $9.99. A 1.47 times multiple on a ten-dollar set is under five dollars of gain, and postage alone can take that. The large sets have smaller multiples, but 1.14 times a few hundred dollars is real money.
Fees decide whether it is a profit
A market value is what a buyer pays, not what the seller keeps. Marketplace fees, payment fees, packaging and shipping all come out of it, and large boxes cost the most to send. As a worked example, if those costs take 15% of the sale price:
- A set bought at list price has to be worth about 1.18 times list to break even. 52% of the sets in our sample clear that.
- A set bought 20% below list has to be worth about 0.94 times list. 92% of the sample clears that.
That is the single most useful number in this article: what you pay matters more than which theme you pick. Storage space, the risk of box damage and the years your money sits on a shelf are costs too, even though they never appear on a receipt.
The sets that did best
Among retired sets that listed at $40 or more, these show some of the highest multiples at their last check in our market data:
Imperial Star Destroyer, an Ultimate Collector Series set retired in 2022. About 1.8 times its US list price at its last check in our market data.
The White House, LEGO Architecture, retired in 2023. About 1.8 times its US list price at its last check.
The sets that lost value
The other end of the same list. Every one of these sets is worth less than it cost new at its last check, which is the risk the headline figures hide:
Black Panther, a large Marvel display bust retired in 2023. About 0.86 times its US list price at its last check in our market data.
Tree House from LEGO Ideas, retired in 2024. About 0.87 times its US list price at its last check in our market data.
Main Street, a Creator 3-in-1 set retired in 2024. About 0.86 times its US list price at its last check in our market data.
The Justifier, a Star Wars ship retired in 2023. About 0.88 times its US list price at its last check, so even Star Wars does not guarantee a gain.
How this compares with the research
A peer-reviewed study of LEGO as an investment, by Dobrynskaya and Kishilova (2022) in Research in International Business and Finance, estimated that new, sealed sets returned at least 11% a year on average from 1987 to 2015, about 8% after inflation. That is a different measure from ours: a yearly return over a long period that ends in 2015, against our snapshot of sets that retired in the last four years. The two agree on the shape, though. Returns vary widely from set to set, and the gains come with time rather than straight after retirement.
If you still want to invest in LEGO in 2026
- Buy below list. Discounts are where the margin comes from, as the fee example shows.
- Buy what is about to retire, not what has just retired. Our LEGO sets retiring in 2026 guide lists the expected exit dates.
- Keep it sealed and store it well. The values here are for new, sealed copies. Cool, dry, dark and flat protects the box.
- Expect to wait. In our data the clear premium shows up years after retirement, not months.
- Spread it out. A handful of sets carries most of the gains and some lose value, so no single set is a safe bet.
- Buy sets you would be happy to keep. If the market never moves, you still own something you like.
For specific picks, see retired LEGO sets worth buying in 2026, and for buying, storing and selling in detail, our LEGO investment guide. Figures on this page come from our market data as of October 2026 and describe the past, not a forecast. Nothing here is financial advice.
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