The Journal · Investment & Collecting
LEGO Sets That Appreciate: What the Data Shows
Which kinds of LEGO sets have gone up in value? A peer-reviewed study of 2,322 sets found small and very large sets, and seasonal, architecture and movie-based themes, did best from 1987 to 2015. Our data on 449 sets retired from 2022 to 2025 shows small sets rising most and big display sets doing no better than average.
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Last Updated: October 07, 2026
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Most of what gets written about LEGO sets that appreciate repeats the same idea: buy the biggest display sets and wait. The data says something more interesting. A peer-reviewed study of 2,322 sets found that small and very large sets beat medium-sized ones, and our own market data on sets retired in the last four years shows small sets rising most and big 18+ display sets doing no better than average. What predicted a gain best was simply time since retirement.
LEGO sets are collectibles, not regulated investments. Values move, and past results say nothing certain about future ones. Read the full disclaimer.
What the long-run research found
The best-known study of LEGO as an investment is by Victoria Dobrynskaya and Julia Kishilova of HSE University, first released as a working paper in 2018 and published in Research in International Business and Finance (volume 59) in 2022. It followed the secondary-market prices of 2,322 new, sealed sets across 44 themes. Its main findings:
- Average return: at least 11% a year, or 8% after inflation, from 1987 to 2015.
- A wide spread: average returns on individual sets ranged from minus 50% to 600% a year, so a handful of sets carried the average.
- Size: small and very large sets were more profitable than medium-sized ones.
- Themes: seasonal, architecture and movie-based themes delivered higher returns.
- Markets: LEGO returns were not exposed to the usual stock-market risk factors, and the LEGO market stayed positive in 2002 and 2008, when the stock index fell.
- The catch: the authors stress that the LEGO market is less liquid than the stock market and carries relatively high transaction and storage costs.
What recent retirements show
To see whether those patterns hold for sets you could still find today, we took every set in our catalog with an expected exit date between January 1, 2022 and December 31, 2025 and a current market value for a new, sealed copy, and compared that value with its list price. That gives 449 sets, priced at checks between November 2025 and October 2026. The list price is the US list price where our catalog has one (371 sets) and the provider's list price otherwise. Two values that looked like catalog mismatches were left out.
By size
| Pieces | Sets | Median value vs list | Above list | 1.5 times list or more | Below list |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 250 | 187 | 1.46 times | 82% | 48% | 4% |
| 250 to 499 | 69 | 1.02 times | 52% | 19% | 20% |
| 500 to 999 | 89 | 1.07 times | 61% | 15% | 19% |
| 1,000 to 1,999 | 63 | 1.13 times | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| 2,000 or more | 41 | 1.16 times | 68% | 20% | 7% |
The smallest sets rose most as a multiple, which matches the study. The largest sets were the second steadiest, with the fewest losers. The middle of the range did worst. Keep the dollar view in mind: a small set at 1.46 times list is usually a gain of a few dollars, which postage can take, while a large set at 1.16 times is real money.
By age mark
| Age mark | Sets | Median value vs list | 1.5 times list or more | Below list |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16+ or 18+ | 72 | 1.15 times | 26% | 8% |
| Marked for younger builders | 309 | 1.23 times | 33% | 12% |
Sets designed for adults did not appreciate faster in this window. They lost value less often, which makes them the steadier choice, but the bigger multiples came from sets made for children, including several DUPLO sets.
By years since retirement
| Retired in | Sets | Median value vs list | 1.5 times list or more | Still at exactly list |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 100 | 1.46 times | 48% | 7% |
| 2023 | 123 | 1.25 times | 34% | 10% |
| 2024 | 124 | 1.27 times | 31% | 8% |
| 2025 | 102 | 1.00 times | 10% | 59% |
Time since retirement separated the sets more clearly than size, age mark or theme. For sets that left shelves in 2025 it is too early to tell: most are still valued at exactly their list price. For the breakdown by theme and by list price, and what selling fees do to these numbers, see Are LEGO Sets a Good Investment in 2026?.
Recent retirements that rose most
Among sets with a US list price of $40 or more, these show some of the highest multiples at their last check in our market data. They are past examples, not picks: all of them have already retired.
Rapunzel's Tower, a mid-sized Disney play set, retired at the end of 2023 and valued at about 2.5 times list, a reminder that children's sets can outrun display models.
A DUPLO tower crane, retired at the end of 2022 and valued at about 2.5 times list, one of several DUPLO sets near the top of our list.
MINDSTORMS Robot Inventor, retired in 2023 after LEGO ended the MINDSTORMS line, and valued at about 1.9 times list.
Recent retirements that fell
The other end of the same list: sets now valued below what they cost new.
Double Loop Stunt Arena, a City Stuntz set, valued at about 0.8 times its list price at its last check.
Iron Man Armory, a Marvel play set, valued at about 0.83 times list.
Main Street, a large Creator 3-in-1 set, valued at about 0.86 times list despite its size.
What does not predict a gain
- Piece count on its own. The biggest sets were steady, not fast, and the middle of the size range did worst.
- An 18+ label. In this window adult sets lost value less often but rose less.
- A famous theme. Every theme in our data has sets above and below list; the theme table on our 2026 investment page shows how close most of them are.
- Retiring soon. A set with an expected exit date is not a forecast of a price rise. Most sets that left shelves in 2025 are still valued at list.
Sets with a deadline
If you want a set before LEGO stops making it, the dates matter more than predictions. Of the 2,804 sets in our catalog with an expected exit date between 2020 and 2028, 97% leave on December 31 or July 31. These large sets have an expected exit date of December 31, 2026:
The Ultimate Collector Series Millennium Falcon, on sale since 2017, with an expected exit date of December 31, 2026.
The Lord of the Rings: Rivendell, with an expected exit date of December 31, 2026.
The LEGO Ideas Grand Piano, with an expected exit date of December 31, 2026.
The Botanical Garden from LEGO Ideas, with an expected exit date of December 31, 2026.
The full list is in our guide to the LEGO sets retiring in 2026, and how to buy, store and sell a set for value is in our LEGO investment guide.
Sources and method
- Victoria Dobrynskaya and Julia Kishilova, LEGO: The Toy of Smart Investors, HSE University working paper, April 2018; published in Research in International Business and Finance 59 (2022), article 101539.
- Our market data: latest market value for a new, sealed copy of each set with an expected exit date in 2022 to 2025, compared with its list price, as of October 7, 2026. Values are estimates before any selling fees or shipping. These figures describe the past, not a forecast.
This page is research based and is not financial advice. We may earn a commission on purchases made through our links.